Israel’s last chance

March 12, 2008

The war of 1973 was completely avoidable, but stubborn arrogance and a lack of imagination in Tel Aviv made it inevitable. The terms agreed upon between the two primary belligerents in the late 70’s were offered in the early 70’s but rejected by Israel, just as they have recently rejected the Saudi led Arab peace plan.

Israel had just emerged from an historic victory in 1967 and was in no mood for compromise. The joke in Israel at the time was, “Arabs are so dumb, they don’t know which side of the gun to hold.” Unfortunately, racism and prejudice have never left mainstream subconscious thought.

I fear history will once again repeat itself, and Israel will only accept honorable peace after a brief taste of annihilation. Many optimists may have hoped the “Second Lebanon War” would suffice to shatter their persistent ego, but apparently not. Israel is gearing up for more confrontations with much larger neighbors, and the consequences can only be even more devastating for everyone.

The Arab peace plan is Israel’s last chance to claim a permanent place in Middle Eastern future because every trend is against them. Demographically they will be outnumbered by Palestinians in only a few short years. Economically their advantages are being eroded by rapidly developing and modernizing neighbors, all of whom favor the Palestinians. Politically their superpower uncle is losing respect and power after back to back failed military adventures, increasingly being usurped on the global stage by a resurgent Russia and a confident China.

I hope this time there will be no failure of imagination and Israel quickly begins to accept the realities of 21st century geopolitics. Every empire has its day, the United Kingdom was once a global superpower, today they are just another country. Israel’s mini-empire is much more modest, but hopefully they won’t need their own World War II to recognize that there can be life after empire.